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生命在你手中

從前村裡有個公認為很聰明的人。一天,有個年輕人想到了一個難題,想來考倒他。這年輕人手裡握著一隻麻雀,然後問聰明人:「你說我手中的麻雀是生的還是死的?」年輕人想,如果聰明人回答是生的,他便握死那麻雀,如果聰明人回答說死的,他便放手讓麻雀飛去。所以聰明人無論如何回答,都不會答對。聰明人想了一想,對著年輕人說:「是生是死,生命在你手中。」

一般聽眾致電電台,總喜歡問嘉賓他們手上的股票是繼續持有呢,還是放掉呢?他們似乎把買賣的權利交給了嘉賓去決定。

聽從別人的意見固然是好的,但一些股民的心態似乎是:如果股票賣掉後股價回落,則說明嘉賓眼光準確,皆大歡喜;但若賣掉後股價反而大升,他們就可以把賺不了大錢的責任歸咎於提議他們賣掉的嘉賓,而自己卻無需負上責任似的。

其實錢是自己的,權在自己手上,「是買是沽,責任在你手中」。儘使聽了幾多人的意見,最後作出行動的還是自己,又怎能免責呢!

「大牛龜」的故事

我從前有個小學同學,因他的年紀比同班的同學大,個子也高,皮膚黑黝黝的,眼睛大大的,同學們都笑他這麼大還唸小學,所以叫他「大牛龜」。

「大牛龜」剛從中國大陸來到香港,未學過英文,只懂二十六個英文字母。事實上,以他的年紀,應該唸中學一年級的,但因他不懂得英文,所以只能唸小學四年級。

當時英文科每周要默書的,老師唸一句,學生便默一句。「大牛龜」每次都拿零分。

那時候,派發默書簿是由老師叫出學生的名字,然後學生出列去跟老師拿的。一次老師派發默書簿時,終於忍不住要生氣了。「大牛龜」走到老師面前時,老師滿面通紅,氣氛地對他喊道:「大牛龜,嗨,你激死我了,每次都吃蛋,你到底吃得膩不膩呀?」

「大牛龜」低頭聽著,心情沉重,面色微紅。

下課前,老師對全班說:「你們聽好喇,下星期默書的範圍是第六課的一二三四段。大牛龜,你回去好好溫習,不要再考零分。」

下星期默書完了,老師收回簿子去批改。

三天後,老師派回默書簿時,顯得極之生氣。老師喊道:「大牛龜,你給我站出來。」「大牛龜」戰戰兢兢走到老師面前。老師命令他伸出手掌。老師手拿木尺,一下一下重重地打在「大牛龜」的掌心上。大牛龜個性倔強,雖然痛得眼淚直流,面也纽曲了,手掌還是伸得直直的。

老師打完了,對著「大牛龜」嚷:「你不懂得默書就算了,幹嗎要偷看?」

「大牛龜」瞪大眼睛,不服氣地回答:「我沒有偷看。」

老師提高嗓子喊道:「你還說你沒偷看!我只是唸了頭三段,你連第四段也默了出來,你還敢說你不是偷看?」

「大牛龜」委屈、低聲地說:「我真是自己默出來的。」

原來「大牛龜」一直不懂英文發音,聽不懂英文,所以每次默書都拿零分;這次老師給了範圍,他便索性把該範圍內的四段英文,全部一個英文字母一個英文字母地背下來。默書時,他也不管老師在唸甚麼,反正就把自己默記著的全寫下來就是了。

老師聽到「大牛龜」的解釋,將信將疑,便叫「大牛龜」放學後到教員室再默一次。結果「大牛龜」一字不漏地默了四段。

這個「大牛龜」長大後,成為一個擁有六十名員工的英國律師。

負責任的公司

歐美金融危機發生,並非監管不足,而是條例不健全。現在政府准許銀行做不應該做的事。銀行用存戶的錢,炒外匯、地產、衍生工具、債券等等,都是用客戶的存款,來做高風險的事。

要有安全的銀行制度,必須要用良好的運作方式。例如︰「中潤證券」,公司本身不投資股票,公司資本只用來做客戶買賣股票生意,只賺取佣金及利息。「孖展」客戶貸款也由公司資金借出,不用將股票按給銀行貸款。此運作方式,公司完全沒有債務,也沒有投資風險,做一間負責任的公司。


全球的銀行,應該先改革條例,規定銀行不准許投資炒賣,只能做貸款生意。有了正確的條例,監管才會有效。如果不改革條例,歷史會重演。

開花的日子不遠了

開花的日子不遠了 2008731

三年前,我已表示通脹會漸漸加劇。現在通脹已令老百姓受苦了,但是價貴可以使大家少花費,少浪費。需求可以減少,通脹就會回落。 

 

今年下半年通脹會緩和,金價、油價也會回落。老百姓的生活會輕鬆一些。 

 

難得現在股市平靜,大家有很多空閒時間。我想大家一起,在夜闌人靜的時候,思考以下一條問題︰ 

「有錢人的錢放在那裡﹖」 

 

我在這行工作了30 年,在富有的股民身邊打轉30 年,我領悟到︰有錢人的錢不是省回來的,而是增值回來的,是不斷投資獲得的。他們的錢,不放入銀行,他們的錢投入︰地產、股票、經營事業,都是投資﹗他們將一分一毫用在增值上。他們的堅持,不是一年半載,而是長期奮鬥,才有所成。 

 

因為股市中有投機分子,所以股市波動是必然的現象。因此,我們持有的股票,必需是一艘穩健的船,要能夠渡過股市的波動起伏。我們有堅定的信念,那麼,短期的價格波動,就毫無意義了。 

 

經歷久的投資者,都有一種經驗,就是當股市低沉的時候,買入股票,將來都會有很高的回報。

 

通脹會緩和,困難的日子很快會過去。下手投资的機會己近了

 

樹苗已長滿綠葉,開花的日子不遠了。

 

又是一次「危」中「機」會

又是一次「危」中「機」會    by            Carmen Wong, BA.Fin, HKU       
               2008-7-31

      近期股市氣氛很差,本地投資者普遍對港股變得較為悲觀,事實上,中國對於金融危機是有強勁抵禦能力的。中國外向型製造業火速發展���動整體經濟,儘管中國已面臨人民幣升值和勞動力缺乏所帶來的成本上升問題,中國仍然有足夠競爭力在未來保持世界工廠的地位,既然中國的經濟發展依然在國際間名列前茅,內裡就沒有金融危機發生的空間。

      內地金融機構在風險防範技術層面確實與頂級跨國金融機構有差距,但外匯管制、行政色彩依然很強的金融、銀行、證券監管卻令內地可以在境外發生金融危機時較有效率地將危機封堵於國門之外,為中國金融安全提供保證。

      持貨不多的投資者可考累將���上資金分成數份,分段購入優質股,作長線投資,以97年股災及03年「沙士」為例,大部份優質股都能在下一個經濟循環時收復失地,甚至升至比大跌前更高,只有少數劣質股還未升回以前之價位。所以是次大跌,正好讓投資者有機會以低價購入優質股作長線投資。投資者亦應時刻檢討自己手上股票,沽出劣質股,換入優質股,待大市回升時,賺取更高的回報。

      現時港股市盈率已回落,為何股民往往於股市高位時喊入市,在低位時慌忙逃呢?需知道股市的必勝法門是高沽低入,但要做到這一點往往需要強大的心理受力,始終與大多數人持有不同意見是一件不容易的事,只要能夠除心理障礙,放眼於價值投資,中長線而言,這次股市下跌又是一次「危」中「機」會。

高息的股票好嗎?

派高息的股票好嗎?2008年4月13

 

 

客户   :選擇投资派高息的股票好嗎?

 

高息的上市公司,并非好的公司政策,因凡有前途的公司,都会将留作展,令公司成,例如美,美上市的公司只派息半厘至一厘,大部份利保留,用来发展,所以美的公司能巨大,股价可以年年上升。

 

一家公司,如果润完全分派,公司金不足,只能原地踏步。公司法成,小公司永小,股价永上升,有高瞻远瞩策者,会将公司利润大部份留在公司,效力。所以大家可以发觉放高股息的股票,股价通常表比低股息股票差。

 

公司策者应该把公司金保留,追求未更高成

 

該股票是否值得投资股息只是考虑因素之一而已

 

香港真實的故事

十年前(1997年)一個年青人,拿了五千元,到股票行開戶,他聲稱有個十年計劃,即是每月都會買入五千元股票,十年為期,他希望十年後可退休。

當時他買入(358)江西銅,每股$2.7,其後此股不斷下跌,他每月繼續買入,兩年後,此股跌至二毫五仙,他仍然買入,十年如一月。

十年期到了,2007年,他把股票沽清。他收到股票行的支票,面露出滿意的微笑,金額是六百五十萬元。

給員工的新年賀信

員工的新年賀信  (徐潤民)  1996210

 

 

致「中潤」全體員工︰

                                                   新春進步﹗

 

新的一年又來臨了!

 

我們很幸運,擁有良好的員工。

 

閣下願意加入本公司,我深感榮幸。在證券行業中,「中潤證券」在短短的幾年,已擁有令人羨慕的聲譽。人們通常認為我們是成功的、誠懇的、有禮的、和具競爭力的公司。

 

我們執著於嚴格的「中潤精神」、這種執著,直接幫助我們在市場爭得一席之地。

 

過去多年來,我們經常強調,本公司期望每位員工的行為均應符合「中潤精神」,今天如此﹔明天也是如此。

 

公司依賴你正正當當地做事,不管對你自己或公司,都是正正當當的。如果說「中潤」的聲譽掌握在你手中,這一些也不誇張。希望「中潤」客戶,都感覺你是他們的朋友。

 

今年,大家一齊努力。我可以告訴你,「中潤」的成功,加上你的努力,必定會令你的生活水準有所改進﹗

 

 

 

敬祝

 

新春進步﹗

                                                                總經理

 

                                                                        徐潤民

 

                                                                1996年2月10日

Crude Oil Price Analysis

Crude Oil Price Analysis
                       -------around 2010 with the onset of long-term shortage
 
by Carmen Wong (B.Fin HKU)


Introduction

Oil is one of the most important resources in our world. Crude oil price fluctuation could bring a lot of economic instability. In this report, the history of oil price and the data of rig count will be shown and discussed. With improving technology, how does it advance oil industry? Since there is resource constrain, can discovery really driven by higher oil price? What is the future of crude oil price?
 
Oil Price Outlook


The oil price rose from $2.50 in 1948 to about $3.10 in 1957. However, this apparent price increases were just keeping up with inflation. From 1958 to 1970 prices were stable at about $3.00 per barrel, but when we consider with inflation, the real price of crude oil declined actually. The decline in the price of crude when adjusted for inflation was further exacerbated in 1971 and 1972 by the weakness of the US dollar.
In 1972 the price of crude oil was about $3.40 and by the end of 1974 the price of oil had climb up to $12.00. The Yom Kippur War started with an attack on Israel by Syria and Egypt on October 5, 1973. The United States and many countries in the western world showed strong support for Israel. As a result of this support, Arab exporting nations imposed an embargo on the nations supporting Israel. Arab nations curtailed production by 5 million barrels per day (MMBPD) about 1 MMBPD was made up by increased production on other countries. The net loss of 4 MMBPD extended through March of 1974 and represented 7 percent of the free-world production. The extreme sensitivity of prices to supply shortages became all too apparent. Prices increased 400 percent in six short months.
 
From 1974 to 1978 crude oil prices increased at a moderate pace from $12 per barrel to $14 per barrel. When adjusted for inflation the prices were constant over this period of time.
 
Events in Iran and Iraq led to another round of crude oil price increases in 1979 and 1980. The Iranian revolution resulted in the loss of 2 to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day between November of 1978 and June of 1979. In 1980 Iraq's crude oil production fell 2.7 MMBPD and Iran's production by 600,000 barrels per day during the Iran/Iraq War. The combination of these two events resulted in crude oil prices more than doubling from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981.
 
From 1982 to 1985 OPEC attempted to set production quotas low enough to stabilize prices. These attempts met with repeated failure as various members of OPEC would produce beyond their quotas. During most of this period Saudi Arabia acted as the swing producer cutting its production to stem the free falling prices. In August of 1985, the Saudis tired of this roll. They linked their oil prices to the spot market for crude and by early 1986 increased production from 2 MMBPD to 5 MMBPD. Crude oil prices plummeted below $10 per barrel by mid year.
 
A December 1986 OPEC price accord set to target $18 per barrel was already breaking down by January of 1987. Prices remained weak. The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainty associated Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War, but following the war crude oil prices entered a steady decline until 1994.
 
The price cycle then turned up. With a strong economy in the United States and a booming economy in Asia increased demand led a steady price recovery well into 1997. This came to a rapid end when OPEC underestimated the impact of the financial crisis in Asia. In December, OPEC increased its quotas 10 percent to 27.5 MMBPD but the rapid growth in Asian economies had come to a halt. Crude oil price dropped to about $11 in 1999. Then, with the recovery in Asia and the decreased in oil quotas by OPEC, price bounced to over $28per barrel. In July2001, the price was about $26.
 
Rig Count
Rotary rigs running

 
The Rotary Rig Count is the average number of drilling rigs actively exploring for oil and gas. It indicates the health of the oil industry. Since drilling an oil well is a capital investment in the expectation of returns from the crude oil production, it is also a measure of how much confidence the oil industry has in the future.
 
At the end of the Arab Oil Embargo in 1974 rig count was below 1500. It rose steadily with regulated crude oil prices to over 2000 in 1979. From 1978 to the beginning of 1981 domestic crude oil prices exploded from a combination of the rapid growth in world energy prices and deregulation of domestic prices. Forecasts of crude oil prices in excess of $100 per barrel fueled a drilling frenzy. By 1982 the number of rotary rigs running had more than doubled.

It is important to noted that there was one year time lag between crude prices and rig count of drilling but it is now reduces to a matter of months after the steep decline of crude prices in 1986. Like any other industry that goes through hard times, the oil business emerged smarter and learner. Companies long familiar with accessing geologic risk added price risk to their decision making.
 
Rig count is only a good measure of oil exploration activity, but not success. However, the percentage of wells completed as oil or gas wells (completion rate) is often used as a measure of success.
 
In 1948, immediately after World War II, 65 percent of the wells drilled were completed as oil or gas wells. This percentage declined to about 57 percent by the end of the 1960s. It rose steadily during the 1970s to reach 70 percent at the end of the decade. This was followed by a modest decline through most of the 1980s. Beginning in 1990 shortly after the harsh lessons of the price collapse completion rates increased dramatically to 77 percent.
 
The steady drop of the completion rates in the 50s and 60s and the increases of the 70s were more related to price. When a well is drilled, the fact that oil or gas is found does not mean that the well will be completed as a producing well. The determining factor is economics. If the well can produce enough oil or gas to cover the cost of completion and the ongoing production costs it will be put into production. Otherwise, it's a dry hole even if crude oil or natural gas is found. The conclusion is that if real prices are increasing we can expect a higher percentage of successful wells. Conversely if prices are declining the opposite is true.
 
The increases of the 1990s, however, cannot be explained by higher prices. These increases are clearly the result of improved technology. The increased use of and improvements to 3-D seismic data and analysis combined with horizontal and directional drilling. Most dramatic is the improvement in the percentage exploratory wells completed. In the 1990s completion rates have soared from 25 to 45 percent.
 
Workover Rigs
Workover rig count is a measure of the industry's investment in the maintenance of oil and gas wells. It is another measure of the health of the oil and gas industry. Most workovers are associated with oil wells. Workover rigs are used to pull tubing for repair or replacement of rods, pumps and tubular goods which are subject to wear and corrosion.
It is quite worrisome with a low level of workover activity because it indicates deferral of maintenance. When operators are in a weak cash position workovers are delayed as long as possible.
 
Technology and market force
The flat earth economists tell us that if we want more oil, all we have to do is drill more wells. They believe that improving technology and higher oil price can increase oil supply. This is only true to a certain extent. No one disputes the huge technological advances of the industry. But, what has been the impact? In Exploration, it shows better both where oil is - and where it is not- thus allowing better estimates of the potential to be made. In Production, it keeps production rate higher for longer, but has little impact on the reserves themselves. Note that much of the oil in a reservoir cannot be extracted because it is held there by capillary forces and natural constrictions. The percentage recovered can be improved in some cases, but by no means all cases. Most modern fields are produced to maximum efficiency from the outset. It is important to know the endowment in nature. Oil is natural resource that supply will come to the end one day. Now, we have produced almost half what is there, and we have found about 90 percent. We produce 22 Gb a year but find only 6 Gb. That is to say, we find one for every four we consume from our inheritance of past discovery. The current depletion rate is about 2 % a year.
 
Facing the future
The world now faces two-phased crisis. The first is a price shock from the ever-greater dependence on the Middle East. The second comes around 2010 with the onset of long-term shortage. In short-term, crude price may have some pressure according to world economic depression and falling demand on oil. Nevertheless, it will be rising in long-term. Now, OPEC targets the price at $25 per barrel. Now we find one for every four we consume from our inheritance of past discovery. With this high depletion rate, will oil price still be $25 per barrel when oil supply become lesser and lesser and dependence on the Middle East become greater and greater? The answer is NO. Oil price must be on a long-term rising trend.
 
 
Carmen Wong (B.Fin HKU)
2002-1-15

給同事的信 -「正達」事件

同事的信( 徐潤民  )199856

中潤證券 各同事

「正達」事件


現在已是深夜,但我無法入睡。今天又有一家證券行倒闭了

「百富勤」、「正達」、「福權」、證劵行一間又一間倒閉,除了影響證券業聲譽外,同行的失業者又增加了。雖然出現問題的證券行都與其財務公司有關,但一般市民及記者却不明白此因。有機會,請向你的客戶朋友解釋。

中潤證券沒有財務公司,而且財政實力雄厚。報章刊登「福權」事件的今天(199856)下午,荃湾分行有新客來開戶口,證明市民對中潤有信心。當時我在場,我很安慰。

雖然如此,我希望各同事,現時要盡力工作,更進一步改良你的形象。公司的成功,需要每一位同事的良好表現。無論你是什麼職位,對公司都十分重要,請盡量付出你的時間及熱心。

今日香港經濟衰退,主要是因為很多企業虧損所致,只要各企業恢復賺錢,將盈利用來再投資,就可以令經濟復甦。失業問題,市道低迷就自然可以解決。

所以,我認為救企業,比助個人更重要。換言之,企業中的每一分子都要盡力為企業切想,不能有私心。一個非適當人選或敗類,會打破整個企業全體員工的飯碗。因此,我一向的作風是不會姑息敗類或非適當人選。因為我要保障整間公司全體職員的飯碗。

中潤 現時的業務進展比我想像中更好,主要是大家都願盡心盡力。我實在感激那些盡力又熱心的同事。

中潤 會有美好將來的。

 

敬祝  一帆風順!

總經理      

徐潤民

199856日深夜