中潤證券 網誌 Blog

客亦友、友亦客,客客友友何其多

選項

Crude Oil Price Analysis

Crude Oil Price Analysis
                       -------around 2010 with the onset of long-term shortage
 
by Carmen Wong (B.Fin HKU)


Introduction

Oil is one of the most important resources in our world. Crude oil price fluctuation could bring a lot of economic instability. In this report, the history of oil price and the data of rig count will be shown and discussed. With improving technology, how does it advance oil industry? Since there is resource constrain, can discovery really driven by higher oil price? What is the future of crude oil price?
 
Oil Price Outlook


The oil price rose from $2.50 in 1948 to about $3.10 in 1957. However, this apparent price increases were just keeping up with inflation. From 1958 to 1970 prices were stable at about $3.00 per barrel, but when we consider with inflation, the real price of crude oil declined actually. The decline in the price of crude when adjusted for inflation was further exacerbated in 1971 and 1972 by the weakness of the US dollar.
In 1972 the price of crude oil was about $3.40 and by the end of 1974 the price of oil had climb up to $12.00. The Yom Kippur War started with an attack on Israel by Syria and Egypt on October 5, 1973. The United States and many countries in the western world showed strong support for Israel. As a result of this support, Arab exporting nations imposed an embargo on the nations supporting Israel. Arab nations curtailed production by 5 million barrels per day (MMBPD) about 1 MMBPD was made up by increased production on other countries. The net loss of 4 MMBPD extended through March of 1974 and represented 7 percent of the free-world production. The extreme sensitivity of prices to supply shortages became all too apparent. Prices increased 400 percent in six short months.
 
From 1974 to 1978 crude oil prices increased at a moderate pace from $12 per barrel to $14 per barrel. When adjusted for inflation the prices were constant over this period of time.
 
Events in Iran and Iraq led to another round of crude oil price increases in 1979 and 1980. The Iranian revolution resulted in the loss of 2 to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day between November of 1978 and June of 1979. In 1980 Iraq's crude oil production fell 2.7 MMBPD and Iran's production by 600,000 barrels per day during the Iran/Iraq War. The combination of these two events resulted in crude oil prices more than doubling from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981.
 
From 1982 to 1985 OPEC attempted to set production quotas low enough to stabilize prices. These attempts met with repeated failure as various members of OPEC would produce beyond their quotas. During most of this period Saudi Arabia acted as the swing producer cutting its production to stem the free falling prices. In August of 1985, the Saudis tired of this roll. They linked their oil prices to the spot market for crude and by early 1986 increased production from 2 MMBPD to 5 MMBPD. Crude oil prices plummeted below $10 per barrel by mid year.
 
A December 1986 OPEC price accord set to target $18 per barrel was already breaking down by January of 1987. Prices remained weak. The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainty associated Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War, but following the war crude oil prices entered a steady decline until 1994.
 
The price cycle then turned up. With a strong economy in the United States and a booming economy in Asia increased demand led a steady price recovery well into 1997. This came to a rapid end when OPEC underestimated the impact of the financial crisis in Asia. In December, OPEC increased its quotas 10 percent to 27.5 MMBPD but the rapid growth in Asian economies had come to a halt. Crude oil price dropped to about $11 in 1999. Then, with the recovery in Asia and the decreased in oil quotas by OPEC, price bounced to over $28per barrel. In July2001, the price was about $26.
 
Rig Count
Rotary rigs running

 
The Rotary Rig Count is the average number of drilling rigs actively exploring for oil and gas. It indicates the health of the oil industry. Since drilling an oil well is a capital investment in the expectation of returns from the crude oil production, it is also a measure of how much confidence the oil industry has in the future.
 
At the end of the Arab Oil Embargo in 1974 rig count was below 1500. It rose steadily with regulated crude oil prices to over 2000 in 1979. From 1978 to the beginning of 1981 domestic crude oil prices exploded from a combination of the rapid growth in world energy prices and deregulation of domestic prices. Forecasts of crude oil prices in excess of $100 per barrel fueled a drilling frenzy. By 1982 the number of rotary rigs running had more than doubled.

It is important to noted that there was one year time lag between crude prices and rig count of drilling but it is now reduces to a matter of months after the steep decline of crude prices in 1986. Like any other industry that goes through hard times, the oil business emerged smarter and learner. Companies long familiar with accessing geologic risk added price risk to their decision making.
 
Rig count is only a good measure of oil exploration activity, but not success. However, the percentage of wells completed as oil or gas wells (completion rate) is often used as a measure of success.
 
In 1948, immediately after World War II, 65 percent of the wells drilled were completed as oil or gas wells. This percentage declined to about 57 percent by the end of the 1960s. It rose steadily during the 1970s to reach 70 percent at the end of the decade. This was followed by a modest decline through most of the 1980s. Beginning in 1990 shortly after the harsh lessons of the price collapse completion rates increased dramatically to 77 percent.
 
The steady drop of the completion rates in the 50s and 60s and the increases of the 70s were more related to price. When a well is drilled, the fact that oil or gas is found does not mean that the well will be completed as a producing well. The determining factor is economics. If the well can produce enough oil or gas to cover the cost of completion and the ongoing production costs it will be put into production. Otherwise, it's a dry hole even if crude oil or natural gas is found. The conclusion is that if real prices are increasing we can expect a higher percentage of successful wells. Conversely if prices are declining the opposite is true.
 
The increases of the 1990s, however, cannot be explained by higher prices. These increases are clearly the result of improved technology. The increased use of and improvements to 3-D seismic data and analysis combined with horizontal and directional drilling. Most dramatic is the improvement in the percentage exploratory wells completed. In the 1990s completion rates have soared from 25 to 45 percent.
 
Workover Rigs
Workover rig count is a measure of the industry's investment in the maintenance of oil and gas wells. It is another measure of the health of the oil and gas industry. Most workovers are associated with oil wells. Workover rigs are used to pull tubing for repair or replacement of rods, pumps and tubular goods which are subject to wear and corrosion.
It is quite worrisome with a low level of workover activity because it indicates deferral of maintenance. When operators are in a weak cash position workovers are delayed as long as possible.
 
Technology and market force
The flat earth economists tell us that if we want more oil, all we have to do is drill more wells. They believe that improving technology and higher oil price can increase oil supply. This is only true to a certain extent. No one disputes the huge technological advances of the industry. But, what has been the impact? In Exploration, it shows better both where oil is - and where it is not- thus allowing better estimates of the potential to be made. In Production, it keeps production rate higher for longer, but has little impact on the reserves themselves. Note that much of the oil in a reservoir cannot be extracted because it is held there by capillary forces and natural constrictions. The percentage recovered can be improved in some cases, but by no means all cases. Most modern fields are produced to maximum efficiency from the outset. It is important to know the endowment in nature. Oil is natural resource that supply will come to the end one day. Now, we have produced almost half what is there, and we have found about 90 percent. We produce 22 Gb a year but find only 6 Gb. That is to say, we find one for every four we consume from our inheritance of past discovery. The current depletion rate is about 2 % a year.
 
Facing the future
The world now faces two-phased crisis. The first is a price shock from the ever-greater dependence on the Middle East. The second comes around 2010 with the onset of long-term shortage. In short-term, crude price may have some pressure according to world economic depression and falling demand on oil. Nevertheless, it will be rising in long-term. Now, OPEC targets the price at $25 per barrel. Now we find one for every four we consume from our inheritance of past discovery. With this high depletion rate, will oil price still be $25 per barrel when oil supply become lesser and lesser and dependence on the Middle East become greater and greater? The answer is NO. Oil price must be on a long-term rising trend.
 
 
Carmen Wong (B.Fin HKU)
2002-1-15

評論 (1) -

徐老板,

不好意思,代為翻譯,希望多些朋友明白了解,願您多多跟我們分享!



原油價格分析
卡門黃 (B.Fin 香港大學)

介紹

油是在我們的世界中,最重要的資源。原油價格波動可以帶來很多經濟不穩定。在這份報告書中石油價格的歷史和遠端測試機組 (rig) 計算的資料將顯示和討論。改進技術,它如何並促進石油工業呢?由於資源限制,可以發現真的受高油價嗎?原油價格的未來是什麼?


石油價格

石油價格上升多少,均收取 2.50 元從 1948 年至約三元一角在 1957 年。但是,這明顯地加價,只保持與通脹率。從 1958 為 1970 年價格穩定每桶,3.00 元,但考慮通脹問題時真正的原油價格下跌其實。粗的通脹調整時的價格跌幅進一步被加上美元疲弱導致 1971年及 1972年。
1972 年原油的價格是約 3.40 元和 1974 年年底石油價格已上升至 12 元。廉 Kippur 戰爭 1973 年 10 月 5 日起對敘利亞和埃及以色列的攻擊。美國和西方世界上的很多國家顯示為以色列的大力支援。這種支援的阿拉伯出口國家施加一個支援以色列的國家的禁運。阿拉伯國家減少生產的 5 億桶 / 天 (MMBPD) 約 1 MMBPD 提出對其他國家的產量增加。4 MMBPD 的淨損失 1974 三月通過擴展,並代表無世界生產的 7%。極端敏感性的供應短缺價格明顯都太。價格在短短六個月增加了 400%。

從 1978年到 1974年原油價格上升到每桶 14 元從 12 元,每桶溫和增長。對於通脹調整價格都不斷在這段時間內。

在伊朗,伊拉克,導致事件進行最新一輪的原油價格升幅 1979年和一九八零年。伊朗革命造成損失的 2 至 2.5 萬桶原油每日十一月的九七八至 1979 年六月間。在一九八 ○ 年伊拉克原油生產下跌 2.7 600,000 kbd 伊朗/伊拉克戰爭中 MMBPD 和伊朗的生產。這兩個事件的組合結果多倍 14 元從 1978 年到每桶 35 元在 1981 年原油價格。

于 1982 年至一九八五年石油輸出國組織試圖設置生產配額夠低,以穩定樓價。這些會見反復失敗了,石油輸出國組織各成員會產生超越他們的配額的嘗試。在這段期間的大部分沙烏地阿拉伯充當秋千生產者削減其生產幹免費價格下跌。在一九八五年八月,Saudis 厭倦了該登記冊。他們從 2 到 5 MMBPD MMBPD 現貨市場原油及按早 1986年增加產量與石油價格。原油價格低於 10 元每桶下跌中一年。

石油輸出國組織一九八六年十二月已被設置為目標每桶 18 元的價格協定打破由一九八七年一月。價格仍然疲弱。在一九九 ○ 年的不明朗因素攀升的原油的價格相關伊拉克入侵科威特和在隨後的海灣戰爭,但後戰爭原油價格輸入穩步下降至一九九四年。

然後,價格週期來了。一個飛速發展的經濟體系,在亞洲與美國經濟強需求增加至 1997年導致穩定價格恢復。這來快速的結尾時歐佩克低估了亞洲金融危機的影響。十二月,石油輸出國組織增加其配額 27.5 MMBPD 為 10%,但迅速增長的亞洲經濟體系已停頓下來。在 1999 年,原油價格下降至約 11 元。然後,在亞洲和在減少復蘇中石油輸出國組織的油配額,價格反彈至超過 $ 28per 桶。在 July2001,價格是約二十六元。

遠端測試機組 (rig) 計數
運行的旋轉鑽機


旋轉台計數是鑽機積極探索石油和天然氣的平均數。它指示石油業的健康。由於一個油井鑽是投資在原油生產從返回的期望,也是一種石油業在未來有多少信心的措施。

阿拉伯石油禁運在 1974 年結束時遠端測試機組 (rig) 計數低於 1500年。它不斷與受規管的原油價格上升至 1979 年的超過 2000年。一九七八年,1981 年開始從國內原油價格爆炸的迅速增長的全球能源價格和撤銷利率管制的本地價格的組合。每桶 100 美元的原油價格預測燃料鑽井的狂熱。由 1982年旋轉式鑽井平臺運行的次數多了一倍。

值得指出有個月後的原油價格價格急跌,1986 年的原油價格及鑽,但它遠端測試機組 (rig) 項之間的時間間隔是現在的一年減少了。像任何其它行業,經過艱難的時刻,出現了聰明的油業務和學習。公司長期熟悉訪問地質風險添加到他們的決策的價格風險。

遠端測試機組 (rig) 計數是只有一個很大的石油勘探的活動,但不是成功。但是,油水井的百分比完成或氣井 (完成率) 常被用作一個成功的衡量的標準。

在 1948 年,二次大戰後,立即 65%的操練,井作為油氣井的已完成。這個百分比下跌 20 世紀 60 年代的末尾到大約 57%。在七十年代,在十月底達到 70%的過程中,它穩步上升。其次是通過在八十年代最輕微下降。在一九九 ○ 年價格的嚴苛的教訓折疊完成率大幅增至 77%後不久的開始。

在五、 六十年代,完成率穩步下降及七十年代的增加了更多有關的價格。當打了一口井,事實上油類或氣體燃料發現並不表示這是一個好的生產完成井。決定因素是經濟。如果井能夠產生足夠的油或氣體至成本的完成及正在進行的生產成本,將會投入生產。否則,它是一個幹洞,即使發現石油或天然氣。結論是如果真正的價格提高我們預料較高比率的成功的井。相反如果價格有下降正好相反。

在的九十年代增加不過,無法解釋的價格上漲。這些加費很明顯的改進的技術成果。聯合水準和定向鑽增加的使用和改善三維地震資料和分析。最富戲劇性是改善的百分比探井完成。在 20 世紀 90 年代完成率已由 25 飆升至 45%。

修遠端測試機組 (rig)
修遠端測試機組 (rig) 計數是投資的油氣井在維修業的措施。它是健康的石油和天然氣工業的另一項措施。大多數 workovers 是與油井相關聯。修井鑽井平臺用於拉管進行維修或更換杆、 泵和管材的磨損和腐蝕的規限。
這是修井機活動的低級別相當令人擔心的因為它表明維護押後。當營辦商在弱現金位置 workovers,儘量延遲。

技術和市場力量
平地球經濟學家告訴我們是否更多油的要我們要做是打井更多。他們認為改善技術和高油價可以增加石油供應。這是只為 true,在一定程度上。沒有人爭議業的龐大的科技發展。但有什麼影響呢?在探索,它顯示更好,都是油-,且是不-從而更好地估計可能作出。在生產,它再,備有產率為高,但對本身的儲備有小小的影響。請注意多一水庫油無法提取因為今日賣旗機構是那裡毛細血管的力量和自然的 constrictions。在某些的情況下,但不是所有情況下,便可改善恢復所占的百分比。從一開始就以最高效率生產最現代的欄位。它有必要知道性質養老。油是供應會來結束一天的天然資源。現在,我們製作了幾乎有一半是什麼有與我們已找到約 90%。我們每年產生 22 Gb,但是發現只有 6 Gb。這即是說,我們發現我們使用從我們繼承過去發現的每四個。目前,消耗率是每年約 2%。

面對未來
世界現在面臨兩相的危機。第一種方法是從中東-越來越依賴一個價格衝擊。第二個是大約 2010 隨長期短缺。在短期、 原油價格可能有一些世界經濟不景和油上的落需求的壓力。不過,它會在長期會上升。現在,石油輸出國組織目標價每桶 25 元。現在我們發現我們使用從我們繼承過去發現的每四個。此高消耗率油價仍會每桶 25 元時石油供應較小、 較小,對中東地區的依賴越來越大嗎?答案是 no。石油價格必須有長遠的上升趨勢。


卡門黃 (B.Fin 香港大學)
2002-1-15

新增評論

biuquote
Loading